Horizon 2100: Antarctica in peril

The future of Antarctica beyond 2100 is a cause for concern: high emissions will lead to major long-term ice loss. A study published on December 05, 2025 in Nature Communications warns that the fate of the Antarctic ice cap, the planet’s largest reservoir of freshwater ice, will play a decisive role in future sea-level rise.

Jointly led by Dr. Violaine Coulon of the Laboratoire de Glaciologie de l’Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) and Ann Kristin Klose of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology , the research shows that the long-term collapse of the West Antarctic ice cap becomes virtually certain in the event of high emissions. Conversely, strong measures to reduce emissions would considerably limit Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise.

The Antarctic ice cap contains enough ice to raise global sea levels by almost 60 metres if it were to melt entirely. Yet its future remains one of the greatest uncertainties in the science of climate change. The new study systematically examines a wide range of factors - from regional climate change to ocean-induced melting at the base of the ice cap - to better understand how Antarctic ice might evolve over the coming centuries.

By combining advanced simulations with observational data, the researchers were able to better pinpoint the range of possible futures. Their findings show that the long-term future of Antarctic ice - and the world’s coastlines - is highly dependent on the path humanity takes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

In a scenario of very high emissions, where no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gases , the study concludes that Antarctica will experience large-scale ice loss, which will continue autonomously. In addition to the highly probable long-term retreat in East Antarctica, the authors consider it "virtually certain" that the West Antarctic ice cap will collapse over the coming centuries in such a scenario. This would contribute between +0.7 and +6.0 meters to sea-level rise by 2300, permanently reshaping coastal communities and ecosystems worldwide.

Conversely, limiting warming through rapid emissions reductions and achieving carbon neutrality well before 2100 could preserve much of the East Antarctic ice and significantly reduce future sea-level rise. In this scenario, Antarctica’s contribution ranges from -0.1 to +1.7 meters by 2300. However, even in this optimistic scenario, the West Antarctic cap could still experience significant retreat.

"Even with severely limited emissions, we cannot totally rule out the complete collapse of the West Antarctic ice cap in the long term. These results show that our actions over the coming decades will determine the fate of Antarctica for millennia to come," said Dr. Violaine Coulon (ULB). "Strong and immediate action to reduce emissions is essential to slow sea level rise and avoid triggering irreversible ice loss."

Ann Kristin Klose (PIK) adds, "Our study reinforces the fact that reducing emissions is not just about stabilizing temperatures, but about protecting coastlines, coastal populations and the long-term stability of the planet."
The study underlines the urgent need for ambitious climate action to reduce emissions, strengthen adaptation strategies and protect coastal populations worldwide from the major impacts of Antarctic ice loss.